In Abu Dhabi, a problem paying homage to previous occasions takes place, with two of essentially the most profitable groups in System 1 as soon as once more battling for the world title. McLaren begins with the calm of a group managing a 21-point lead, whereas Ferrari is pressured to realize a double podium, hoping that the rivals from Woking don’t get too shut. The Scuderia finds motivation within the warmth and the tires, but additionally clings to assist from Max Verstappen.
“On paper, we’re in all probability in a greater place for varied elements, together with temperatures and the structure of the monitor,” says Frederic Vasseur, simply days earlier than the decisive race. Abu Dhabi presents itself as a extra ‘impartial’ circuit in comparison with the final two, with Las Vegas suiting Ferrari’s traits extra, whereas Qatar performed to McLaren’s strengths. The Yas Marina circuit options some sluggish, 90-degree corners, similar to corners 12, 16, or the 6-7 chicane, that are favored by a Ferrari with glorious mechanical grip and good traction from low speeds. Then again, corners of medium velocity and lengthy turns, similar to 5 or the double 13-14, in addition to the lengthy and quick nook 9, are extra suited to McLaren’s preferences.
Abu Dhabi can also be notable for its lengthy straights, which can penalize much less highly effective energy models nearing the top of their lifespan. General, the monitor requires a medium aerodynamic load setup, permitting McLaren to reintroduce their new and distinctive rear wing, which was first launched in the course of the Brazilian Grand Prix. Ferrari, however, is counting on the brand new flooring that confirmed optimistic leads to Qatar on Leclerc’s automotive, producing nice curiosity to see if the Scuderia can handle the logistical and monetary problem of bringing a second model of this flooring to Carlos Sainz’s automotive.
The design of the circuit would be the start line, however the 2024 System 1 season has taught us that tires, asphalt, and environmental circumstances could make an excellent greater distinction. On this regard, Ferrari celebrates the return of the softer Pirelli tire compounds, C3, C4, and C5, that are the alternative of the more durable compounds utilized in Qatar, which Ferrari struggled with. The asphalt right here has larger grip and, above all, extra abrasiveness in comparison with Lusail’s, rushing up tire hysteresis. In different phrases, the tires warmth up quicker because of the larger micro-deformations involved with the bottom, a course of that generates warmth. That is a side that, on paper, mitigates Ferrari’s difficulties in making ready the tires for a flying lap.
In Abu Dhabi, qualifying and the race are held at evening, however the monitor temperatures ought to nonetheless exceed 30°C, a full 10°C larger than these recorded in Qatar. The window of operation for the vehicles shifts towards larger temperatures, a change that additionally favors Ferrari. Moreover, as already occurred in Lusail, the primary and third free apply classes happen earlier than sundown, with a subsequent cooling of the monitor for qualifying and the race. In Qatar, the ground-effect System 1 vehicles already confirmed excessive sensitivity to this issue, with monitor evolution tending to shift the steadiness towards the rear. In Abu Dhabi, the anticipated temperature drop is as a lot as 10°C, greater than double that skilled within the final race, presenting a further problem find the proper setup.
Each groups want an ideal execution of the weekend to be topped champions, beginning with the administration of qualifying. In 2023, the gaps had been extraordinarily slender, with 15 drivers inside four-tenths of a second, resulting in the surprising elimination of Carlos Sainz in Q1. Managing visitors is essential, because the tight third sector tends to create lengthy queues, risking cooling down the tires of these making an attempt a flying lap, a situation much like Monaco.
The race tempo, however, is restricted each by entrance tire put on and rear tire degradation, not notably favoring Ferrari or McLaren. “Flip 9 is lengthy and high-speed, so it is going to be essential for entrance tire administration,” defined Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, simply hours earlier than the beginning in 2023. “The important thing can be managing overheating within the third sector, together with the exit from the 6-7 chicane that separates the 2 straights. Rear tire temperatures, if saved beneath management, could make the distinction in sustaining efficiency.”
The Qatar race was freed from the dreaded graining points, which, nonetheless, had been observed on the correct entrance tire within the final race in Abu Dhabi. This subject is troubling McLaren, as Lando Norris lately commented: “On some tracks which can be extra rear-limited, these issues don’t seem, however we’ve all the time been one of many worst groups for entrance tire graining. When we’ve it, we’re not the quickest, however as quickly because it goes away, the state of affairs modifications.” One other variable is the variety of pit stops, with simulations predicting comparable race occasions between one or two stops. The technique may very well be decided by visitors or by somebody desperately attempting to combine up plans to strive one thing completely different.
The end result of the world championship battle between Ferrari and McLaren may even rely on the third events. Max Verstappen and Pink Bull stand out, with the potential to be aggressive, particularly on a flying lap and at first, supplied they will repeat the troublesome job of hitting the proper window for the RB20’s efficiency. Mercedes, in the meantime, begins barely behind after struggling in Qatar. The Silver Arrows face larger temperatures and a essential third sector for the rear tires, points that don’t assist the W15. Nevertheless, the peerlessly levelled asphalt will permit the automotive to work in a low and stiff configuration, which fits Mercedes effectively.
The dedication of the midfield groups shouldn’t be underestimated both, with Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls engaged in a fierce battle for sixth place within the constructors’ standings. As with Ferrari, the warmth and the monitor breathe new life right into a Haas that struggled within the Qatar corners, however the absence of bumps and undulations will assist Alpine as soon as once more decrease its journey peak, highlighting the strengths of the automotive. All of the elements for an thrilling present are there, however irrespective of the end result, the Abu Dhabi race can be a historic verdict.
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