Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Common Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we’ve got completely no thought who which candidate they really assist. Your guess is about nearly as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending hundreds of thousands and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his firms will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It definitely isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try to sway the election in favor of their most popular candidate, and but, Musk should discover himself in authorized hassle over his political motion committee’s attainable violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the attainable mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the whole record, only a handful of essentially the most instant points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the way aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In any case, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its fair proportion of distractions. They’re already burning poll containers, so there’s no purpose to consider they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he most likely received’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t neglect about that entire two-tiered justice system we’ve got that appears particularly geared towards holding the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to stop the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s exhausting to have a lot religion that the Harris administration received’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with every thing.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he really believes, Musk’s habits on Twitter currently definitely suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest individual on this planet will hold him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can also be spreading the concept that Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, mentioned he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with a superb time, I don’t know, nevertheless it most likely has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that may possible be unhealthy information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been utterly divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk not on the helm, it’s exhausting to think about traders wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in spite of everything.
What’s rather more attention-grabbing to think about is what’s going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is usually right here to remain. In a scenario the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless straightforward to see a variety of potential clients deciding they don’t wish to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling folks he plans to crash the economic system when he guts the federal authorities like a non-public fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common folks don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about every other electrical automaker, a Harris win can be excellent news. She is going to possible proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and desires to develop the EV trade within the U.S. She’ll spend money on clear power and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you possibly can count on Harris to be essentially the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO ought to be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV trade as an entire, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can possible affect its gross sales, as properly. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a helpful asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing unit magically disappeared in a single day.
By the top of the second Harris administration, different networks could have caught up, however a minimum of within the close to future, you possibly can’t overlook how vital the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle towards competitors that solely will get more durable each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historical or the Cybertruck definitely doesn’t assist issues, both.
After all, Musk defenders will inform you automobile gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, nevertheless it’s additionally straightforward to see traders getting spooked and attempting to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they regulate their technique based mostly on the route they consider Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be just a few credulous rubes who stick round and actually consider Tesla is about to “resolve autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If traders get spooked, issues may in a short time go from unhealthy to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is efficacious when it comes to authorities contracts, nevertheless it isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this entire factor going, and some huge traders exiting could possibly be the falling domino that finally brings all of it down. If the inventory value is predicated on vibes anyway, unhealthy vibes may simply snowball right into a scenario the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the value falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be nervous about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to lift taxes on the wealthy, regulate firms and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Discover ways to price range like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the folks can be higher off underneath the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the possibility to do any of that, it wouldn’t be stunning to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they may not be capable of afford to outfit a brand new non-public jet or bust unions and abuse employees with out penalties.
Because of this, it’s straightforward to think about a state of affairs the place traders wish to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which might be much less prone to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into exhausting to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s attainable that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being a daily electrical automaker and provides up on pretending humanoid robots will really be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as possible as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you assume? Will the inventory crash? Will it’s extra of a sluggish burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk resolve autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as every other as a result of there’s no option to predict the long run. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins could as properly be a coin-flip, so in case you haven’t voted already, make double rattling positive you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon ready of energy in a second Trump administration.
